Pilihan raya presiden Iran 2009: Perbezaan antara semakan
Kandungan dihapus Kandungan ditambah
Malekhanif (bincang | sumb.) |
Malekhanif (bincang | sumb.) |
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Baris 127:
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==Kajian awal==
Kajian awal telah dilakukan beberapa pihak tentang siapa yang akan menang dalam pilihan raya Iran ini.
{| class="wikitable" border="1"
|-
!rowspan=2| Organisasi undian
!rowspan=2| Tarikh
!rowspan=2| Maklumat undian
!colspan=4| Calon
|-
![[Mahmoud Ahmadinejad]]
![[Mehdi Karroubi]]
![[Mir-Hossein Mousavi]]
![[Mohsen Rezaee]]
|-
|reported by [[Rooz|Rooz Online]]<ref name="RoozonlinePolls0319">{{cite web|url=http://www.roozonline.com/persian/opinion/opinion-article/article/2009/june/08//-a2239d36f0.html |title=Roozonline Poll Khordad 19}}</ref>
|before 9 June 2009 <!-- please do not remove iranian date, for checking: 19/3/1388 -->
|Nationwide; 7900 people<!--, Margin=90%, Turnout between 31 million to 42 million, around 35.5 with probability 80%, probability of second round 29% -->
|align=right|23%
|align=right|''Unknown''
|align=right style="background:#28c0a6"|54%–57%
|align=right|''Unknown''
|-
|Rahbord e Danesh, reported by [[Tabnak]]<ref name="RahbordedaneshPolls0319">{{cite web|url=http://www.tabnak.ir/fa/pages/?cid=51299 |title=Rahbord e Danesh Poll Khordad 19}}</ref>
|before 9 June 2009 <!-- please do not remove iranian date, for checking: 19/3/1388 -->
|1743 people<!--, Khozestan, Tehran (1,3,4,14,15,22), Eastern Azarbaijan, Gilan, Middle and South Khorasan -->
|align=right|25.5%
|align=right|6.1%
|align=right style="background:#28c0a6"|37.6%
|align=right|30.8%
|-
|reported by Alef <ref name="AlefPolls0318">{{cite web|url=http://alef.ir/1388/content/view/47404/ |title=Poll June 8 reported by Alef}}</ref>
|before 8 June 2009<!-- please do not remove Iranian date, for checking: 18/3/1388 -->
|Major cities
|align=right style="background:#ff7070"|61.7
|align=right|Unknown
|align=right|28
|align=right|Unknown
|-
|reported by Alef <ref name="AlefPolls0318"/>
|before 8 June 2009<!-- please do not remove Iranian date, for checking: 18/3/1388 -->
|Tehran
|align=right|42
|align=right|Unknown
|align=right style="background:#28c0a6"|46
|align=right|Unknown
|-
|IRIB, reported by Alef <ref name="IRIBPolls0317">{{cite web|url=http://alef.ir/1388/content/view/47404/ |title=IRIB Poll June 8}}</ref>
|before 7 June 2009<!-- please do not remove Iranian date, for checking: 17/3/1388 -->
|Tehran
|align=right style="background:#ff7070"|47.5
|align=right|Unknown
|align=right|39.9
|align=right|Unknown
|-
|IRIB, reported by Alef <ref name="IRIBPolls0317"/>
|before 7 June 2009<!-- please do not remove Iranian date, for checking: 17/3/1388 -->
|more than 16,000 people, 30 major cities in each Province
|align=right style="background:#ff7070"|62.7
|align=right|Unknown
|align=right|25.7
|align=right|Unknown
|-
|reported by Baznevis<ref name="BaznevisPolls0316">{{cite web|url=http://baznevis.com/view-17808.html |title=Banevis Poll Khordad 16}}</ref>
|before 6 June 2009 <!-- please do not remove iranian date, for checking: 16/3/ -->
|16,945 people<!--; 12455 (73.5%) will vote, 2796 (16.5) undecided, 1694 (10%) will not vote; men=9829 (58%), women=7116(42%); 250 white vote (2%);
age: 18-30=7625 (45%), 31-45=5931 (35%), 45-60=2542 (15%), over 60=847 (5%); city with with population over 100,000=6778 (40%), with population under 100,000=3042 (25%), rural area=4804 (35%) -->
|align=right|22.5%
|align=right|7.5%
|align=right style="background:#28c0a6"|64%
|align=right|4%
|-
|reported by [[Iranian Labour News Agency|ILNA]]<ref name="Ilna">{{cite web|url=http://www.ilna.ir/newsText.aspx?ID=59037 |title=ميرحسين موسوي با 54 درصد در دور اول انتخابات پيروز خواهد شد}}</ref>
|before 5 June 2009 <!-- please do not remove iranian date, for checking: 15/3/1388 -->
|Nationwide 300,000 people
|align=right|24.61%
|align=right|10.72%
|align=right style="background:#28c0a6"|54.53%
|align=right|10.14%
|-
|Rahbord e Danesh, reported by Tabnak<ref name="RahbordedaneshPolls0313">{{cite web|url=http://www.tabnak.ir/fa/pages/?cid=51299 |title=Rahbord e Danesh Poll Khordad 13}}</ref>
|before 3 June 2009 <!-- iranian: 13/3/1388 -->
|1743 people<!--, Khozestan, Tehran (1,3,4,14,15,22), Eastern Azarbaijan, Gilan, Middle and South Khorasan -->
|align=right|29.5%
|align=right|7.5%
|align=right style="background:#28c0a6"|37.5%
|align=right|25.2%
|-
|Rayemelat<ref name="RayemelatPolls0313">{{cite web|url=http://www.rayemelat.com/Show_Archive.aspx?date=1388/03/13 |title=Rayemelat Poll June 06}}</ref>
|before 3 June 2009 <!-- iranian: 13/3/1388 -->
|Tehran
|align=right|33%
|align=right|10%
|align=right style="background:#28c0a6"|50%
|align=right|6%
|-
|reported by Rajanews/[[Press TV]]<ref name="presstv2pollsJune1">{{cite web|url=http://www.presstv.ir/detail.aspx?id=96702§ionid=351020101 |title=Ahamdinejad (sic) leading polls in major cities |publisher=Press TV |date= |accessdate=2009-06-01 |archiveurl=http://www.webcitation.org/5hDPYAQgY |archivedate=2009-06-01}}</ref>
|before 1 June 2009
|major cities
|align=right style="background:#ff7070"|53%
|align=right|''Unknown''
|align=right|36%
|align=right|''Unknown''
|-
|Baznevis, reported by [[Tabnak]]<ref name="tabnak13880310" />
|before 31 May 2009
|Nationwide; 77,058 people
|align=right|33%
|align=right|3%
|align=right style="background:#28c0a6"|36%
|align=right|27%
|-
|Aftab News, reported by Tabnak<ref name="tabnak13880310">{{cite web|url=http://www.tabnak.ir/fa/pages/?cid=50100 |title=وضعیت نامزدهای انتخاباتی در نتایج یک نظرسنجی |publisher=tabnak.ir |date=2009-05-31 |accessdate=2009-06-01|archiveurl=http://www.webcitation.org/5hDJ4L2DO |archivedate=2009-06-01}}, from bar graph</ref>
|before 31 May 2009
|Nationwide; 18,391 people; (Who will you '''not''' vote for?)
|align=right|(62%)
|align=right|(7%)
|align=right|(28%)
|align=right|(4%)
|-
|Rahbord Danesh, reported by Tabnak<ref name="tabnak13880310" />
|31 May 2009 <!-- for easier checking, please do not remove: 1388-03-10 iranian -->
|Nationwide
|align=right|32%
|align=right|6%
|align=right style="background:#28c0a6"|36%
|align=right|27%
|-
|reported by Ghalamnews<ref name="GalamnewsPolls0306">{{cite web|url=http://ghalamnews.ir/news-18999.aspx |title=Mousavi's votes are increasing and Ahmadinejad's votes decrease |publisher=Ghalamnews}}</ref>
|before 27 May 2009 <!-- iranian: 6 Xordad 1388 = 6/3/1388 -->
|1650 people
|align=right|35%
|align=right|''Unknown''
|align=right style="background:#28c0a6"|54%
|align=right|''Unknown''
|-
|reported by Rayemelat<ref name="rayemelat13880306">{{cite web|url=http://www.rayemelat.com/Show_Archive.aspx?date=1388/03/06 |title=رای ملت |publisher=Rayemelat.com |date=2009-05-27 |accessdate=2009-06-01|archiveurl=http://www.webcitation.org/5hDIFZLZl |archivedate=2009-06-01}}</ref>
|before 27 May 2009
|Tehran only
|align=right|36%
|align=right|9%
|align=right style="background:#28c0a6"|48%
|align=right|5%
|-
|Young Journalists Club ([[Islamic Republic of Iran Broadcasting|IRIB]] affiliated)<ref name="presstv_karroubi_overtakes">{{cite news | first= | last= | pages= | language =| title=Karroubi overtakes Moussavi in election poll | date=2009-05-30 | publisher=[[Press TV]] | url=http://www.presstv.ir/detail.aspx?id=96514§ionid=351020101 |accessdate=2009-05-30 |archiveurl=http://www.webcitation.org/5hAEUMi8O |archivedate=2009-05-30 }}</ref>
|before 30 May 2009
|Nationwide; 30,000 people
|align=right style="background:#ff7070"|1st
|align=right|2nd
|align=right|3rd
|align=right|4th
|-
|reported by Ayandeh News<ref name="presstv_ayandeh_pre26may">{{cite news | first= | last= | pages= | language =| title=Moussavi takes lead in 10 major cities: poll | date=2009-05-26 | publisher=[[Press TV]] | url=http://www.presstv.ir/detail.aspx?id=96057§ionid=351020101 |accessdate=2009-05-27 |archiveurl=http://www.webcitation.org/5h4OvEpxj |archivedate=2009-05-26 }}</ref>
|before 26 May 2009
|10 major cities
|align=right|34%
|align=right|''Unknown''
|align=right style="background:#28c0a6"|38%
|align=right|''Unknown''
|-
|[[Islamic Republic of Iran Broadcasting]]<ref name="presstv_ayandeh_pre26may" />
|before 26 May 2009
|Tehran only
|align=right|43%
|align=right|''Unknown''
|align=right style="background:#28c0a6"|47%
|align=right|''Unknown''
|-
|[[New America Foundation]]<ref name="new_america_foundation">{{cite web|url=http://www.terrorfreetomorrow.org/upimagestft/TFT%20Iran%20Survey%20Report%200609.pdf |title=New America Foundation Poll}}, (see p.8)</ref>
|before 20 May 2009
|Nationwide; 1001 people
|align=right style="background:#ff7070"|34%
|align=right|2%
|align=right|14%
|align=right|1%
|-
|reported by Rayemelat<ref name="rayemelat">{{cite web|url=http://www.rayemelat.com/Show_Archive.aspx?date=1388/02/24 |title=رای ملت |publisher=Rayemelat.com |date=2009-05-24 |accessdate=2009-05-29}}</ref>
|14 May 2009
|Tehran only
|align=right|42%
|align=right|6%
|align=right style="background:#28c0a6"|44%
|align=right|4%
|-
|[[Etemad-e-Melli]]<ref name="presstv13may">{{cite news | first= | last= | pages= | language =| title=Karroubi passes rival Moussavi in poll | date=2009-05-13 | publisher=[[Press TV]] | url=http://www.presstv.ir/detail.aspx?id=94598§ionid=351020101 |accessdate=2009-05-24 |archiveurl= |archivedate= }}</ref>
|before 13 May 2009
|Nationwide
|align=right style="background:#ff7070"|1st
|align=right|2nd
|align=right|3rd
|align=right|4th
|-
|Rahbord Danesh, reported by Tabnak<ref name="tabnak13880310" />
|5 May 2009 <!-- for easier checking, please do not remove: 1388-02-15 iranian -->
|Nationwide
|align=right style="background:#ff7070"|38%
|align=right|12%
|align=right|32%
|align=right|15%
|-
|reported by Rajanews/[[Press TV]]<ref name="presstv2pollsMay12">{{cite web|url=http://www.presstv.com/classic/detail.aspx?id=94457§ionid=351020101 |title=Ahmadinejad leads election poll by big margin |publisher=Press TV |date= |accessdate=2009-05-29}}</ref><ref name="xinhua12May">{{cite news | first= | last= | pages= | language =| title= | date= | publisher=[[Xinhua News Agency]] | url=http://news.xinhuanet.com/english/2009-05/12/content_11362701.htm |accessdate=2009-05-24 |archiveurl=http://www.webcitation.org/5hDQB8V7E |archivedate=2009-01-06 }}</ref>
|3 May 2009–4 May 2009
|62 cities
|align=right style="background:#ff7070"|59%
|align=right|''Unknown''
|align=right|22%
|align=right|''Unknown''
|-
|Government<ref name="presstv2pollsMay12" />
|before 3 May 2009
|''Unknown''
|align=right style="background:#ff7070"|54% (45% in Tehran)
|align=right|''Unknown''
|align=right|22% (29% in Tehran)
|align=right|''Unknown''
|-
|Rahbord Danesh, reported by Tabnak<ref name="tabnak13880310" />
|4 April 2009 <!-- for easier checking, please do not remove: 1388-01-15 iranian -->
|Nationwide
|align=right style="background:#ff7070"|40%
|align=right|8%
|align=right|24%
|align=right|1%
|-
|Worker's Statistical Institute<ref name="adnkronos_workerslatemarch">{{cite web|url=http://www.adnkronos.com/AKI/English/Politics/?id=3.0.3197293953 |title=Iran: Worker poll puts reformist presidential candidate ahead - Adnkronos Politics |publisher=Adnkronos.com |date=2003-04-07 |accessdate=2009-05-29}}</ref>
|late March 2009
|Nationwide survey of workers
|align=right|36%
|align=right|8%
|align=right style="background:#28c0a6"|52%
|align=right|''Unknown''
|-
|Rahbord Danesh, reported by Tabnak<ref name="tabnak13880310" />
|5 March 2009 <!-- for easier checking, please do not remove: 1387-12-15 iranian -->
|Nationwide
|align=right style="background:#ff7070"|44%
|align=right|7%
|align=right|13%
|align=right|0%
|}
==Rujukan==
{{reflist}}
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