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Pilihan raya presiden Amerika Syarikat 2024: Perbezaan antara semakan

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Pilihan raya yang akan datang ini penting kerana ia adalah yang pertama berlaku selepas undi diselaraskan di Badan Pemilih berdasarkan bancian Amerika Syarikat tahun 2020.<ref>{{cite news|last1=McArdle|first1=Megan|title=2016 Might Look Safe to Democrats. But 2024?|url=http://www.bloombergview.com/articles/2015-05-21/2016-might-look-safe-to-democrats-but-2024-|access-date=October 30, 2015|work=[[Bloomberg L.P.|Bloomberg]]|date=May 21, 2015|archive-date=October 23, 2015|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20151023080613/http://www.bloombergview.com/articles/2015-05-21/2016-might-look-safe-to-democrats-but-2024-|url-status=live}}</ref><ref>{{cite book|last1=Janda|first1=Kenneth|title=The Challenge of Democracy: American Government in Global Politics|date=2013|publisher=Wadsworth|isbn=978-1-133-60230-9|page=218}}</ref> Jika keputusan pilihan raya pada tahun 2020 kekal sama (yang tidak pernah berlaku sebelum ini), Demokrat akan mendapat 303 undi pemilih dan Republikan akan mendapat 235 undi. Ini adalah perubahan kecil daripada 306 undi pemilih Biden dan 232 undi pemilih Trump. Ini bermakna Demokrat kehilangan 3 undi pemilih kerana proses pelarasan. Perubahan kepada Badan Pemilih ini akan berkuat kuasa sehingga pilihan raya pada tahun 2028. Selepas bancian Amerika Syarikat pada tahun 2030, proses pelarasan undi pilihan raya akan berlaku lagi.<ref>{{cite book|last1=Neale|first1=Thomas|title=The Electoral College: How It Works in Contemporary Presidential Elections|date=2012|publisher=[[Congressional Research Service]]|url=https://www.fas.org/sgp/crs/misc/RL32611.pdf|access-date=October 30, 2015|archive-date=October 4, 2020|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20201004222933/https://fas.org/sgp/crs/misc/RL32611.pdf|url-status=live}}</ref>
 
[[Fail:Red_states_and_blue_states_2016-2020.svg|thumb|350x350px| Peta di atas memaparkan bagaimana setiap negeri mengundi dalam dua pilihan raya presiden yang lalu, iaitu pada tahun 2016 dan pada tahun 2020. Keputusan kedua-dua pilihan raya tersebut digabungkan. Negeri-negeri yang menukar undi mereka pada pilihan raya tahun 2020 diwarnakan dengan kelabu.]]
==== Kepartian pilihan raya ====
Dalam pilihan raya presiden sebelum ini, kebanyakan negeri menyokong satu parti kerana siapa yang menetap di sana. Walau bagaimanapun, beberapa negeri yang dikenali sebagai ''swing state'' atau senario politik negeri sering berubah boleh menyokong sama ada [[Parti Demokrat (Amerika Syarikat)|Parti Demokrat]] atau [[Parti Republikan (Amerika Syarikat)|Parti Republikan]]. Negeri-negeri ini seperti [[Wisconsin]], [[Michigan]], dan [[Pennsylvania]] di wilayah Timur Laut dan Barat Tengah negara, dan [[Nevada]], [[Arizona]] dan [[Georgia]] di peringkat selatan negara adalah sangat penting bagi calon parti untuk memenangi jawatan presiden.<ref>{{cite web |last1=Dorman |first1=John L. |title=Six battleground states will hold the key to the White House in 2024 |url=https://www.businessinsider.com/battleground-states-2024-presidential-election-road-white-house-2022-12 |website=Business Insider |access-date=25-5-2023 |archive-date=24-12-2022 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20221224171653/https://www.businessinsider.com/battleground-states-2024-presidential-election-road-white-house-2022-12 |url-status=live }}</ref> Dalam pilihan raya yang lepas, [[Carolina Utara]] ialah negeri yang penting kerana margin kemenangan Trump amatlah tipis.<ref>{{Cite news |title=North Carolina may be the hottest political battleground of 2024 |newspaper=The Economist |url=https://www.economist.com/united-states/2023/06/15/north-carolina-may-be-the-hottest-political-battleground-of-2024 |access-date=9-8-2023 |issn=0013-0613 |archive-date=15-6-2023 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20230615153748/https://www.economist.com/united-states/2023/06/15/north-carolina-may-be-the-hottest-political-battleground-of-2024 |url-status=live }}</ref>
[[Fail:Red_states_and_blue_states_2016-2020.svg|thumb|350x350px| Jangkaan partisan yang lemah di 50 negeri AS dan Daerah Columbia pada peringkat presiden. Lorekan setiap negeri menandakan bahagian undi dua parti pemenang, secara purata antara pilihan raya presiden 2016 dan 2020. Negeri yang bertukar pada tahun 2020 berwarna kelabu.]]
Dalam pilihan raya presiden baru-baru ini, kebanyakan negeri tidak berdaya saing kerana demografinya mengekalkan mereka kukuh di belakang satu parti. Oleh kerana sifat [[badan pemilih]], ini bermakna negeri atas pagar — negeri kompetitif yang "berayun" antara parti Demokrat dengan Republikan - adalah penting untuk memenangi jawatan presiden. Setakat ini, ini termasuk negeri di [[Barat Tengah Amerika Syarikat|Barat Tengah AS]] seperti [[Wisconsin]], [[Michigan]], dan [[Pennsylvania]], dan negeri di [[Jalur Matahari]] seperti [[Nevada]], [[Arizona]] dan [[Georgia, Amerika Syarikat|Georgia]].<ref>{{Cite web|url=https://www.businessinsider.com/battleground-states-2024-presidential-election-road-white-house-2022-12|title=Six battleground states will hold the key to the White House in 2024|last=Dorman|first=John L.|website=Business Insider|access-date=May 25, 2023}}</ref> [[Carolina Utara]] juga boleh dianggap sebagai negeri medan pertempuran disebabkan oleh keputusan rapat dalam pilihan raya presiden sebelum ini, di mana Trump hanya menang sebanyak 1.34%.<ref>{{Cite news|url=https://www.economist.com/united-states/2023/06/15/north-carolina-may-be-the-hottest-political-battleground-of-2024|title=North Carolina may be the hottest political battleground of 2024|access-date=2023-08-09|work=The Economist|issn=0013-0613}}</ref> Disebabkan oleh peralihan demografi secara beransur-ansur, beberapa negeri bekas atas pagar seperti [[Iowa]], [[Ohio]] dan [[Florida]] telah beralih ketara ke arah Republikan, memihak kepada mereka dalam pilihan raya seluruh negeri dan tempatan akan datang. Sementara itu, negeri seperti [[Colorado]], [[New Mexico]] dan [[Virginia]] telah bergerak dengan ketara ke arah Demokrat lalu menjadi kuasa politik yang dominan di sana.<ref>{{Cite web|url=https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/news/here-are-battleground-states-to-watch-in-2024|title=Who's in and who's out: Here are the battleground states to watch in 2024|last=Mondeaux|first=Cami|date=December 30, 2022|website=The Washington Examiner|access-date=May 25, 2023}}</ref><ref>{{Cite news|url=https://www.minnpost.com/elections/2020/11/biden-wins-minnesota-continuing-decades-long-democratic-streak/|title=Biden wins Minnesota, continuing decades-long Democratic streak|last=Kaul|first=Greta|date=November 4, 2020|access-date=June 16, 2023|work=minnpost.com}}</ref><ref>{{Cite news|url=https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2021/mar/07/us-virginia-progressive-southern-state|title='We're making our way': how Virginia became the most progressive southern state|last=Smith|first=David|date=March 8, 2021|access-date=May 25, 2023|work=The Guardian}}</ref>
 
Beberapa negeri yang dahulunya merupakan ''swing state'' seperti [[Iowa]], [[Ohio]], dan [[Florida]] telah mula lebih menyokong Parti Republikan. Namun begitu, negeri-negeri yang lain seperti [[Colorado]], [[New Mexico]], dan [[Virginia]] lebih condong kepada Parti Demokrat sekarang.<ref>{{cite web |last1=Mondeaux |first1=Cami |title=Who's in and who's out: Here are the battleground states to watch in 2024 |url=https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/news/here-are-battleground-states-to-watch-in-2024 |website=The Washington Examiner |date=30-12-2022 |access-date=25-5-2023 |archive-date=30-12-2022 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20221230151848/https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/news/here-are-battleground-states-to-watch-in-2024 |url-status=live }}</ref><ref>{{cite news|last1=Kaul|first1=Greta|title=Biden wins Minnesota, continuing decades-long Democratic streak|url=https://www.minnpost.com/elections/2020/11/biden-wins-minnesota-continuing-decades-long-democratic-streak/|website=minnpost.com|date=4-11-2020|access-date=16-6-2023|archive-date=4-11-2020|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20201104075439/https://www.minnpost.com/elections/2020/11/biden-wins-minnesota-continuing-decades-long-democratic-streak/|url-status=live}}</ref><ref>{{cite news|last1=Smith|first1=David |title='We're making our way': how Virginia became the most progressive southern state |url=https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2021/mar/07/us-virginia-progressive-southern-state |website=The Guardian|date=8-3-2021|access-date=25-5-2023 |archive-date=8-3-2021 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20210308072806/https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2021/mar/07/us-virginia-progressive-southern-state |url-status=live }}</ref>
Gabungan pilihan raya Demokrat tradisional, yang mendapatkan "negeri biru" bagi calon presiden Demokrat, kebanyakannya terdiri daripada kumpulan minoriti (terutamanya [[Orang Amerika Afrika|Afrika-Amerika]] dan [[Orang Latin|Latin]]), wanita, profesional berpendidikan dan pengundi bandar.<ref>{{Cite web|url=https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-5-key-constituencies-of-the-2020-democratic-primary/|title=The 5 Key Constituencies of the 2020 Democratic Primary|last=Silver|first=Nate|date=January 10, 2019|website=FiveThirtyEight|access-date=May 25, 2023}}</ref> Pengundi [[kelas pekerja]] juga merupakan tunjang utama pakatan Demokrat sejak zaman [[Gabungan Tawaran Baharu|Perjanjian Baru]], tetapi sejak 1970-an, ramai telah berpaling tadah kepada Republikan apabila Parti Demokrat menjadi lebih berkepelbagaian dan liberal daripada segi budaya.<ref>{{Cite web|url=https://www.cnn.com/2021/08/10/politics/democrats-blue-collar-voters/index.html|title=This may be the Democrats' last chance to recover working-class Whites|last=Brownstein|first=Roland|date=August 10, 2021|website=cnn.com|publisher=CNN|access-date=May 25, 2023}}</ref> Sebaliknya, gabungan tradisional Republikan yang menguasai banyak "negeri merah" kebanyakannya terdiri daripada pengundi kulit putih luar bandar, evangelis, warga tua dan pengundi bukan berpendidikan kolej.<ref>{{Cite web|url=https://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2018/11/09/who_votes_republican_138604.html#!|title=Who Votes Republican|last=Charen|first=Mona|website=RealClearPolitics.com|publisher=Real Clear Politics|access-date=May 25, 2023}}</ref> Republikan juga dari segi sejarah menunjukkan prestasi yang baik dengan pengundi [[Kelas pertengahan|kelas menengah]] [[Subbandar|pinggir bandar]] sejak tahun 1950-an, tetapi blok ini telah menjauh daripada mereka dalam beberapa tahun kebelakangan ini disebabkan oleh kebangkitan [[Gerakan Tea Party|pergerakan Tea Party]], dan kemudiannya gerakan [[Jadikan Amerika Hebat Lagi|Make America Great Again]], jenama [[Populisme sayap kanan|populisme haluan kanan]] yang ditanam oleh bekas Presiden [[Donald Trump]].<ref>{{Cite web|url=https://www.aei.org/articles/losing-the-suburbs/|title=Losing the Suburbs|last=Cost|first=Jay|website=AEI.com|publisher=AEI|access-date=May 25, 2023}}</ref> Pecutan aliran ini telah dikreditkan menyebabkan [[Pilihan raya presiden Amerika Syarikat 2020|pilihan raya presiden 2020]] memihak kepada Demokrat [[Joe Biden]] memandangkan penyandang Trump dalam sejarah tidak popular di pinggir bandar terhadap calon Republikan, dengan prestasi rendah secara ketara di sana.<ref>{{Cite web|url=https://www.npr.org/2021/03/31/982953836/amid-changing-political-landscape-suburbs-no-longer-belong-to-gop|title=Amid Changing Political Landscape, Suburbs No Longer Belong To GOP|last=Gonyea|first=Don|website=NPR|access-date=May 25, 2023}}</ref>
 
Parti Demokrat biasanya mendapat banyak sokongan daripada pengundi Yahudi dan orang kulit hitam,<ref name="Levitz-2022">{{Cite web|last=Levitz |first=Eric |date=19-10-2022 |title=How the Diploma Divide Is Remaking American Politics |url=https://nymag.com/intelligencer/2022/10/education-polarization-diploma-divide-democratic-party-working-class.html|access-date=21-10-2022 |website=[[New York (magazine)|New York]] |language=en-us |quote=Pada separuh kedua abad ke-20, orang yang tidak mempunyai ijazah kolej lebih cenderung untuk mengundi Demokrat berbanding mereka yang mempunyai ijazah universiti. Walau bagaimanapun, tren ini mula berubah pada penghujung 1960-an dan berubah sepenuhnya pada tahun 2004. Pada masa kini, gabungan Demokrat terdiri daripada individu yang lebih berpendidikan dan mewah. Antara tahun 1948 dan tahun 2012, pengundi kulit putih yang kaya cenderung menyokong Parti Republikan berbanding mereka yang berpendapatan rendah. Walau bagaimanapun, corak ini berubah dalam beberapa tahun kebelakangan ini. Pada pilihan raya tahun 2016 dan tahun 2020, dalam kalangan pengundi kulit putih, yang kaya lebih condong ke kiri, manakala yang miskin lebih condong ke kanan, dengan kelas pertengahan di antara.|archive-date=20-10-2022 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20221020215535/https://nymag.com/intelligencer/2022/10/education-polarization-diploma-divide-democratic-party-working-class.html |url-status=live }}</ref><ref>{{Cite news |last=Edsall |first=Thomas |author-link=Thomas B. Edsall |date=1-2-2023|title=How Much Longer Can 'Vote Blue No Matter Who!' Last? |language=en-US |work=The New York Times |url=https://www.nytimes.com/2023/02/01/opinion/democratic-party-coalition.html |access-date=8-2-2023|issn=0362-4331|archive-date=8-2-2023 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20230208032609/https://www.nytimes.com/2023/02/01/opinion/democratic-party-coalition.html |url-status=live }}</ref> orang kulit putih yang berpendidikan,<ref>{{Cite web |last=Goldberg |first=Zach |date=31-1-2023 |title=The Rise of College-Educated Democrats |url=https://www.manhattan-institute.org/rise-of-college-educated-democrats |access-date=8-2-2023 |website=Manhattan Institute |language=en |archive-date=8-2-2023 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20230208032134/https://www.manhattan-institute.org/rise-of-college-educated-democrats |url-status=live }}</ref> dan mereka yang tinggal di bandar.<ref name="Munis-2022">{{Cite news|last1=Munis|first1=Kal|last2=Jacobs|first2=Nicholas|date=20-10-2022|title=Why Resentful Rural Americans Vote Republican|newspaper=[[The Washington Post]]|url=https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2022/10/20/midterms-rural-urban-divide-resentment/|url-access=registration|access-date=21-10-2022|quote=...that the disproportionately White, older, more religious, less affluent and less highly educated voters who live in rural areas are more likely to hold socially conservative views generally championed by Republicans. Meanwhile, urban areas are filled with younger, more racially diverse, more highly educated and more affluent people who hold the more socially liberal views generally championed by Democrats.|archive-date=20-10-2022|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20221020235510/https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2022/10/20/midterms-rural-urban-divide-resentment/|url-status=live}}</ref> Pengundi kelas pekerja sebelum ini banyak mengundi Parti Demokrat tetapi kini ramai daripada mereka menyokong Parti Republikan.<ref>{{cite news |last1=Brownstein |first1=Roland |title=This may be the Democrats' last chance to recover working-class Whites|url=https://www.cnn.com/2021/08/10/politics/democrats-blue-collar-voters/index.html |date=10-8-2021 |work=CNN|access-date=25-5-2023 |archive-date=26-5-2023 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20230526052428/https://www.cnn.com/2021/08/10/politics/democrats-blue-collar-voters/index.html |url-status=live }}</ref>
 
Sebaliknya, Parti Republikan biasanya mendapat undi daripada orang kulit putih di kawasan luar bandar, orang beragama, pengundi yang lebih tua dan mereka yang tidak berpendidikan.<ref>{{cite web |last1=Charen |first1=Mona |title=Who Votes Republican |url=https://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2018/11/09/who_votes_republican_138604.html#! |website=RealClearPolitics.com |publisher=Real Clear Politics |access-date=25-5-2023 |date=9-11-2018 |archive-date=16-11-2018 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20181116084528/https://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2018/11/09/who_votes_republican_138604.html#! |url-status=live }}</ref> Walaupun Parti Republikan pernah mempunyai rekod baik dengan pengundi pinggir bandar kelas pertengahan, sebahagian daripada mereka telah mula menyokong Parti Demokrat sejak kebelakangan ini.<ref>{{cite web|last1=Cost|first1=Jay|title=Losing the Suburbs|url=https://www.aei.org/articles/losing-the-suburbs/|website=AEI.com|publisher=AEI|access-date=25-5-2023|archive-date=21-2-2020|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20200221003525/https://www.aei.org/articles/losing-the-suburbs/|url-status=live}}</ref><ref>{{cite web |last1=Gonyea |first1=Don |title=Amid Changing Political Landscape, Suburbs No Longer Belong To GOP |url=https://www.npr.org/2021/03/31/982953836/amid-changing-political-landscape-suburbs-no-longer-belong-to-gop |website=NPR |access-date=25-5-2023 |archive-date=31-3-2021 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20210331093657/https://www.npr.org/2021/03/31/982953836/amid-changing-political-landscape-suburbs-no-longer-belong-to-gop |url-status=live }}</ref>
 
Tinjauan baru-baru ini menunjukkan bahawa Parti Demokrat mungkin kehilangan sokongan daripada pengundi Hispanik, Asia, Arab dan golongan muda. Parti Republikan juga nampaknya kehilangan sokongan daripada pengundi orang kulit putih dan mereka yang berusia 65 tahun dan ke atas.<ref>{{Cite news |last=Goldmacher |first=Shane |date=5-11-2023 |title=Trump Leads in 5 Critical States as Voters Blast Biden, Times/Siena Poll Finds |language=en-US |work=The New York Times |url=https://www.nytimes.com/2023/11/05/us/politics/biden-trump-2024-poll.html |access-date=28-11-2023 |issn=0362-4331 |archive-date=28-11-2023 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20231128001050/https://www.nytimes.com/2023/11/05/us/politics/biden-trump-2024-poll.html |url-status=live }}</ref><ref>{{Cite news|last=Cohn|first=Nate |date=15-9-2023 |title=Why Are Democrats Losing Ground Among Nonwhite Voters? 5 Theories. |language=en-US |work=The New York Times |url=https://www.nytimes.com/2023/09/15/upshot/democrats-biden-hispanic-black-voters.html |access-date=28-11-2023 |issn=0362-4331 |archive-date=28-11-2023 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20231128001115/https://www.nytimes.com/2023/09/15/upshot/democrats-biden-hispanic-black-voters.html|url-status=live }}</ref><ref>{{Cite news |last=Cohn |first=Nate |date=5-9-2023 |title=Consistent Signs of Erosion in Black and Hispanic Support for Biden |language=en-US |work=The New York Times|url=https://www.nytimes.com/2023/09/05/upshot/biden-trump-black-hispanic-voters.html |access-date=28-11-2023 |issn=0362-4331 |archive-date=27-11-2023 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20231127151016/https://www.nytimes.com/2023/09/05/upshot/biden-trump-black-hispanic-voters.html |url-status=live }}</ref><ref>{{Cite news |last=Shalal |first=Andrea |date=31-10-2023 |title=Arab American support for Biden, Democrats plummets over Israel, poll shows |language=en |work=Reuters |url=https://www.reuters.com/world/us/arab-american-support-biden-democrats-plummets-over-israel-poll-2023-10-31/ |access-date=28-11-2023 |archive-date=2-12-2023 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20231202222334/https://www.reuters.com/world/us/arab-american-support-biden-democrats-plummets-over-israel-poll-2023-10-31/ |url-status=live }}</ref><ref>{{Cite news |last=Cohn |first=Nate |date=27-11-2023 |title=Why Biden's Weakness Among Young Voters Should Be Taken Seriously |language=en-US |work=The New York Times |url=https://www.nytimes.com/2023/11/27/upshot/poll-biden-young-voters.html |access-date=28-11-2023|issn=0362-4331 |archive-date=28-11-2023 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20231128000939/https://www.nytimes.com/2023/11/27/upshot/poll-biden-young-voters.html |url-status=live }}</ref> Walaupun begitu, sesetengah pakar<ref>{{Cite web |author=Adam Carlson |date=4-12-2023 |title=What Do Aggregated Crosstabs Tell Us About 2024? |url=https://split-ticket.org/2023/12/04/what-do-aggregated-crosstabs-tell-us-about-2024/ |access-date=27-1-2024 |website=Split Ticket |language=en-US |archive-date=27-1-2024 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20240127223547/https://split-ticket.org/2023/12/04/what-do-aggregated-crosstabs-tell-us-about-2024/ |url-status=live }}</ref> berkata tinjauan ini mungkin tidak tepat sepenuhnya kerana ia tidak merangkumi semua pengundi dan mungkin tidak menggambarkan apa yang sebenarnya akan berlaku dalam pilihan raya.<ref>{{Cite web |author1=Arlette Saenz |author2=MJ Lee |date=12-1-2024 |title=Biden campaign grapples with undecided voters who don't yet believe Trump could be the nominee |url=https://www.cnn.com/2024/01/12/politics/trump-biden-2024-campaign/index.html |access-date=27-1-2024 |website=CNN |language=en |archive-date=27-1-2024 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20240127223547/https://www.cnn.com/2024/01/12/politics/trump-biden-2024-campaign/index.html |url-status=live }}</ref><ref>{{Cite web |first=Mark |last=Mellman |date=6-12-2023 |title=The problem with interpreting poll crosstabs |url=https://thehill.com/opinion/4344490-mellman-the-problem-with-interpreting-poll-crosstabs/ |access-date=27-1-2024 |website=The Hill |language=en-US |archive-date=27-1-2024 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20240127223547/https://thehill.com/opinion/4344490-mellman-the-problem-with-interpreting-poll-crosstabs/ |url-status=live }}</ref><ref>{{Cite web |last=Faria |first=Zachary |date=7-11-2023 |title=Trump's strong general election polling is a mirage |url=https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/opinion/2437662/trumps-strong-general-election-polling-is-a-mirage/ |access-date=27-1-2024 |website=Washington Examiner |language=en-US |archive-date=27-1-2024 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20240127223547/https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/opinion/2437662/trumps-strong-general-election-polling-is-a-mirage/ |url-status=live }}</ref><ref>{{Cite web |date=19-12-2023 |title=The Unpollable Election |url=https://news.yahoo.com/unpollable-election-230245011.html |access-date=27-1-2024 |website=Yahoo News |language=en-US |archive-date=27-1-2024 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20240127223547/https://news.yahoo.com/unpollable-election-230245011.html |url-status=live }}</ref><ref>{{Cite web |title=For Biden, youth vote polling is a warning, not the apocalypse |url=https://www.brookings.edu/articles/for-biden-youth-vote-polling-is-a-warning-not-the-apocalypse/ |access-date=27-1-2024 |website=Brookings |language=en-US |archive-date=27-1-2024 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20240127224804/https://www.brookings.edu/articles/for-biden-youth-vote-polling-is-a-warning-not-the-apocalypse/ |url-status=live }}</ref><ref>{{Cite web |date=21-11-2023 |title=The Great Political Polling Crisis |url=https://newrepublic.com/article/166473/political-polling-2024-elections-crisis |access-date=27-1-2024 |website=The New Republic |language=en |archive-date=27-1-2024 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20240127223547/https://newrepublic.com/article/166473/political-polling-2024-elections-crisis |url-status=live }}</ref>
 
== Isu kempen ==
Diambil daripada "https://ms.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pilihan_raya_presiden_Amerika_Syarikat_2024"